Inflation: a rise in prices to be expected on January 1, 2023

For several months, prices have been steadily climbing. And according to the government, inflation will last several more months.

Since the beginning of 2022, the expenses of the French continue to increase . In question ? Galloping inflation, which affects all sectors. The rise in prices therefore has many impacts on the daily lives of populations. It then pushes some towards deprivation, including in the food aisles. If inflation does not stop , the situation could get even worse for households already in difficulty. Unfortunately, the latest information from the Ministry of the Economy suggest that the rise in prices could still last. A priori, it will still penalize the French for several months. Here's what to expect in 2023.

Government admits inflation will persist

The news may not delight the citizens. Indeed, it becomes more and more difficult to pay shopping or bills . Inflation makes even the most essential purchases difficult. The inflation recorded in recent months seems unprecedented since the 1980s. Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy , had to admit that the situation was likely to drag on. ' VS he inflationary peak which has already lasted for several weeks will last a few more months. »

On the side of the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, the observation seems similar. She nevertheless ventures to foresee an improvement in the first half of 2023 . “When we look at the price of certain raw materials […], we see the beginning of a decline, which should be able to be transmitted to consumer prices around mid-2023. This means that in the course of 2023, I confirm that our estimate is that inflation should start to come down. »

The forecasts remain ultimately too optimistic

When the government tabled its finance bill in September 2022, inflation was still estimated at 5.3% in 2022 then 4.3% in 2023 . But in the end, measured inflation is well above these estimates.

Indeed, the rise in prices, between November 2021 and November 2022, reveals inflation of nearly 6.2% . This figure even reaches 7.3% according to Eurostat data. Outside of France, the European Union has nearly 10% increase over the same period .

Economist Marc Touati fears an acceleration of inflation in 2023

An expert in finance and currency, this economist remains well known on TV shows. Rising energy and raw material costs will be a problem from January 1, he said. In effect, supermarkets will update their prices on this date . Something to surprise consumers. ' Manufacturers are renegotiating their prices with large retailers. It is only on January 1 that the increase in their costs will be passed on to consumers. There will be a statistical leap. »

According to the economist, people may feel overwhelmed . Indeed, inflation will affect electricity as much as gas, food and all industrial products. ' To the increase in the prices of food and manufactured products, will be added the increase in the prices of gas and electricity. »

Finally, Marc Touati would like to qualify the government's position . According to him, our leaders do not necessarily have all the cards in hand to reduce inflation themselves .
“Inflation doesn't just depend on us, it's also linked to external factors, such as climatic factors and the war in Ukraine. »

Marc Touati's predictions for 2023

Although the economist does not necessarily share government analysis . However, it agrees (in part) with the forecasts of Elisabeth Borne. Thus, he estimates that inflation will reach its maximum point during the first 6 months of 2023 . “The peak of inflation will only be reached in the spring. After falling, inflation will remain high, around 4%. »

However, according to the expert, the price increase could reach up to 10% before we passed this famous peak . For Marc Touati, this inflation will inevitably be followed by a phase of mild recession. ' In other words, the decline in inflation will be caused by the fall in demand which will gradually fall below supply. And this, by mid-2023 “.

On the citizens' side, it will therefore be necessary take are bad in patience , and hold on. To reduce your bills and consume less, there are many tips. That said, it seems that some households have already made many efforts in recent months .

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